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Bart's Blogroll

  • The Agitator

  • Libertarianism with a focus on law enforcement
  • A Tiny Revolution
    Great snark from the left
  • Alternet
    Lefty e-zine with stuff you won't find anywhere else
  • Bacon's Rebellion
    Serious policy analysis with a Virginia focus
  • Boing Boing
    News and inventions of the geeky and offbeat kind
  • Cafe Hayek
    Free-market economics without all those equations
  • Cato@Liberty
    Libertarian think-tank musings
  • Crooked Timber
    Brit lit and polit
  • Democracy Arsenal
    Foreign affairs stuff
  • Drudge Report
    Needs no introduction
  • Mickey Kaus
    The master of the craft (with exclams!)
  • Obsidian Wings
    Intelligent liberalism
  • TNR's Open University
    Really intelligent liberalism
  • Policy Soup
    The voice of Fairfax business
  • QandO
    Libertarian principles, conservative politics
  • Raising Kaine
    Cheerleading for the Democratic Party
  • Real Clear Politics
    A daily fix for political junkies
  • Reason Hit & Run
    The voice of Reason (magazine)
  • Richmond Talks Back
    Lengthy rebuttals to the Times-Dispatch opinion section
  • River City Rapids
    Strictly Richmond stuff
  • Say Anything
    Red meat for conservatives
  • Shaun Kenney
    A view from Virginia's right
  • Slantblog
    Observations and occasional art from the Fan District
  • Talking Points Memo
    Red meat for liberals
  • Tapped
    Liberal policy blog
  • Tech Central Station
    Technocentric conservatism
  • Political Animal
    More liberal wonkishness
  • Andrew Sullivan
    Pro-conservative, anti-theocrat
  • Virginia Leftyblogs
    A compendium of local leftishness
  • Virginia Political Blogs
    Where to go to read the rest
  • Vivian Page
    A nice Democratic lady
  • Waldo Jaquith
    Good stuff from Charlottesville. Plus dogs!
  • Matthew Yglesias
    Policyblogging from the center-left
  • Friday Diversion
    Bart Hinkle
    July 03, 2008 1:40 PM

    Arcade action.

    Comments (1)


    Just So You Know. . . .
    Bart Hinkle
    July 03, 2008 7:31 AM

    . . . Not everybody is buying that John-McCain-is-a-war-hero stuff. Here’s a guy (a professor at Princeton, no less) who figures McCain is halfway to being a regular Hitler. (The commenters agree, and then some.)

    Comments (9)


    Is the Bill of Rights Worth It? Better Run the Numbers
    Bart Hinkle
    July 03, 2008 7:16 AM

    image

    Not that it’s a big surprise, but the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence takes issue with the Heller ruling:

    And now the Supreme Court has overturned over 100 years of judicial precedent and stood the Second Amendment to the Constitution on its head. The 5-4 decision in District of Columbia v. Heller, written by Reagan appointee Justice Antonin Scalia, holds that the Second Amendment protects an individual right to possess firearms for self-defense purposes unconnected with service in a well regulated militia.

    As Josh Horwitz, Executive Director of the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence, recently wrote: “By deliberately omitting what test the Court is using to decide that [the District’s handgun ban and trigger lock requirement] unreasonably burden this newly proclaimed individual right to possess firearms, the Court leaves legislators and lower courts adrift at a time when public health data clearly shows the harm associated with handguns far outweighs any benefit from their use for lawful self defense.”

    The decision is a terrible one and complete misreads the Framer’s intent in drafting in the Second Amendment. It is relatively narrow in scope, however, and leaves many critical questions unanswered. More importantly, it does not prevent gun violence prevention organizations from actively pursuing a wide range of legislative initiatives to reduce gun violence.

    The harm from guns outweights any benefit from their lawful use. Debatable, but let’s assume it’s true. Shall we then start applying cost-benefit analyses to other articles in the Bill of Rights? Quick, grab a pencil!

    Comments (14)


    ‘Because We Said So’ Is Not Evidence
    Bart Hinkle
    July 01, 2008 2:14 PM

    A great many Americans seem to think that any person who is being held as an enemy combatant at Guantanamo Bay deserves to be there, because he is a terrorist—and he must be a terrorist because, after all . . . he is being held at Guantanamo Bay.

    The case of Huzaifa Parhat suggests otherwise.

    Comments (7)


    As Will Rogers Said. . . .
    Bart Hinkle
    July 01, 2008 8:25 AM

    . . . . he could remember when a liberal was someone who was generous with his OWN money. Today, everyone’s liberal with everyone else’s—and that’s the topic of today’s column.

    Comments (8)


    Court’s in Session
    Bart Hinkle
    July 01, 2008 7:38 AM

    Andrew Stegmaier, an occasional contributor to the discussion here, has begun his own blog: The Court of Peeves, Crotchets & Irks. Go check out some of his thoughtful stuff.

    Comments (3)


    There’s One Born Every Minute
    Bart Hinkle
    June 30, 2008 12:07 PM

    And you thought you were paying too much for gasoline. . . .

    Desalinated seawater from Hawaii, meanwhile, is being sold as “concentrated water”—at $33.50 for a two-ounce bottle. Like any concentrated beverage, it is supposed to be diluted before drinking, except that in this case, that means adding water to . . . water.

    (link) Comments (15)


    Misfiring
    Bart Hinkle
    June 30, 2008 7:55 AM

    A few days ago syndicated columnist Leonard Pitts swung by the Editorial Department offices for a chat. (Good guy; seems weary.) Among many other things, he talked about his series on “What Works,” charter schools, and public education. One of the things that has impressed him, he said, is the degree to which strong principals make a difference—and how hard it is to get rid of bad teachers.

    Comes now this story that underscores the latter point:

    In New York City, it often costs taxpayers $250,000 just to fire one incompetent teacher. Some teachers remain on the payroll even after being convicted of serious felonies, requiring districts to hold disciplinary hearings behind prison walls.

    “Protecting jobs of adults without regard to how well their students perform almost certainly will lead to greater costs, stagnant academic achievement, and greater dysfunction of our public education system,” says tenure foe B. Jason Brooks of the Foundation for Education Reform & Accountability.

    Comments (8)


    Outside the Box
    Bart Hinkle
    June 27, 2008 8:11 AM

    Today’s column discusses the Supreme Court.

    Comments (14)


    Reason Triumphs
    Bart Hinkle
    June 26, 2008 9:15 AM

    Supreme Court rules 5-4 for gun rights.

    Update: Opinion here.

    Comments (20)


    SCOTUS Glosses
    Bart Hinkle
    June 26, 2008 7:52 AM

    image

    If you’re interested in reading more about today’s Supreme Court decision on gun rights, you’ll find lots to keep you busy at The Volokh Conspiracy and Scotus Blog.

    You can find a ginormous amount of information at Guncite.

    And of course, there’s always the NRA and the Brady Campaign.

    Comments (1)


    Norm’s Retort to My Rebuttal to His Rebuke of Our Editorials. . . .
    Bart Hinkle
    June 26, 2008 7:33 AM

    . . . is here.

    I don’t want to drag this out much more, esp. since Norm said some nice things about me, but I’lm a little hung up on the mass-transit point he’s raised, for two reasons:

    (a) I still don’t see where we’ve endorsed “massive” transfers of wealth for mass transit, unless you assume all mass transit has to suck up huge volumes of cash from general-revenue sources and that ticket prices never can be set to cover the cost per passenger mile. I’m not sure that’s so. Mass transit certainly might cost more on a passenger-mile basis, though that’s probably shifting because of gasoline prices (see my column from August 18, 2006, pasted below, for more details about that discussion)—but that’s a different question.

    (b) We’ve been pretty thorough in criticizing knee-jerk support for mass transit especially when it would require huge subsidies; see the editorial from July 20, 2006, pasted below.

    ______________________________________________

    In Some Policy Debates, the Numbers Can Drive You Crazy
    By A. Barton Hinkle

    Friday,August 18, 2006
    Edition: Final, Section: Editorial, Page A-11
    Printer friendly Email this story

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    In public policy, some issues can be resolved simply by resorting to numbers. Police lineups provide a perfect example: Experiments can determine whether witnesses pick the actual perpetrator more often out of simultaneous lineups (in which photos of several suspects are shown to the witness all at once) or sequential lineups (in which he views suspect photos one at a time). Once you know which method works better, the debate is over. Everyone agrees on the goal; the only question is how best to get there.
    Sometimes numbers don’t matter at all. That’s especially true concerning the basket of issues that make up the culture wars - abortion, homosexuality, etc. - in which, at bottom, people disagree about the primary goal. (Is it, say, protecting individual female autonomy, or protecting the unborn?)

    Debating is such great fun because people with deep-seated convictions persist in pretending as though empirical evidence swings much weight in settling philosophical differences. E.g., supporters and opponents of abortion rights go around and around over whether abortion correlates with breast cancer. But supporters won’t change their view that a woman has a right to control her own body even if there is a correlation - and opponents won’t change their view that abortion stops a beating heart even if there isn’t.

    Most issues consist of a thoroughly enjoyable muddle of empirical and philosophical questions. But even those that seem empirically straightforward quickly can get tangled up if you pick at the right (or wrong) thread.

    Take transportation.

    TAKE, EVEN, a very small question about transportation: Which costs more - traveling one mile by train or one mile by car?

    There are two schools of thought. Fans of public transit say rail travel costs less. Public transit’s skeptics say car travel costs less. Who’s right depends on how you count.

    A few weeks ago these pages cited figures of 21 cents per mile for car travel, including the costs of road construction. Rail advocates objected and demanded to know the source, which was a chapter in 21st Century Highways: Innovative Solutions to America’s Transportation Needs, produced by The Heritage Foundation. The source raised eyebrows, as they say; the sense was that anything from Heritage could be dismissed out of hand because Heritage has an agenda (which it does). But casual dismissal is a mistake, for three reasons.

    First, Heritage - or, say, the liberal Brookings Institution - is not run by amateurs. The policy wonks know their stuff; they live and breathe and actually enjoy dissecting issues such as comparative per- passenger travel costs. Second, disliking someone isn’t the same as disproving what they say. If the Yankees beat the Mets, hearing George Bush or Hillary Clinton report the news does not mean the Yankees actually lost. And third, precisely because think tanks elicit skepticism, they have good reason to be able to back up what they say.

    Nevertheless Wendell Cox, the author of the chapter in question, was kind enough to provide his methodology, which seems clear enough (but, please, don’t fall asleep): From the Bureau of Transportation Statistics he took the total expenditures in 2004 on user-operated transportation nationwide, in current dollars ($939.8 billion), and divided it by the number of person-miles traveled in 2004 by two-axle, four-wheeled vehicles (4.452 trillion). Result: 21 cents per mile.

    RUBBISH, SAY rail advocates who contend car travel costs a lot more. They cite figures from AAA, which are markedly higher: 62 cents per mile for a vehicle driven 10,000 miles a year.

    The car club says its methodology for estimating annual driving costs is “proprietary,” but the details it does disclose seem to inflate its figures. It counts costs only for the first five years of ownership of a new car - by far the most expensive years. E.g., AAA estimates financing costs based on a five-year loan at 6 percent interest, with 10 percent down, which works out to about $4,100 a year for the first five years for a car costing 20 grand - and $0 per year for every year afterward. Yet most people keep their cars beyond five years. Indeed, Cox notes the average age of the vehicle fleet in the U.S. is almost 10 years.

    What’s more - to get really granular - insurance costs likely are lower than AAA’s estimate. Maintenance costs might be higher, but many drivers don’t buy the comprehensive extended warranty AAA includes in its cost estimates. And Cox’s stats from the BTS include actual figures (not hypothetical estimates) for insurance premiums, tires, tubes, accessories, parts, and so on - as well as the capital costs for highway infrastructure.

    We still haven’t touched the rail side of the question (big surprise: cost-per- passenger- mile estimates vary widely), or externalities such as pollution, or the marginal gains to be had from an additional dollar invested in a system that’s highly developed (roads) vs. one invested in a system with lots of room for growth (rail).

    In public policy, some issues can be resolved simply by resorting to numbers. The hard part is figuring out which numbers.

    ________________________________________________

    Train Wreck

    Thursday,July 20, 2006
    Edition: Final, Section: Editorial, Page A-10
    Printer friendly Email this story

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Several independent candidates for federal office held a joint news conference the other day to announce that while they disagree on numerous subjects, they are of one mind concerning rail. They think Virginia needs more of it.
    They’re not alone. Rail holds allure for many people, and for many reasons - from its comparably low environmental effects to its European sensibility to its essential tidiness: Centrally planned rail lines move people along specific trajectories in an orderly fashion. Rail seems less chaotic than vehicular traffic.

    Rail certainly has its place. It provides an efficient means for moving cargo and the safest means for transporting hazardous materials. Yet passenger rail confronts three dilemmas of daunting proportions: cost, ease of use, and density.

    When all the capital and operating costs of both mass transit and automobile travel are accounted for, rail travel is almost four times as expen- sive as vehicular travel. In 2002, rail cost 82 cents per person per mile; vehicular travel cost 21 cents, even after factoring in government spending on roads. Travelers might be willing to pay that higher cost in return for conveniences such as briefer commute times, diminished highway congestion, and less road rage. But passenger rail travel in most of the U.S. - and certainly in Virginia - promises few such offsets.

    A principal reason concerns ease of use. An automobile is compatible on any road or street anywhere. A driver can enter the road network at any point and get off at any point - at whatever time he wants - without changing cars. But even bus systems, which are the closest mass- transit analog, require transfers for more than the simplest of trips. Imagine trying to get from, say, Carytown to an address in Herndon using only mass transit.

    * * * * *

    Mass transit works in places where people are, well, massed together - such as New York, which has a population density of 26,000 persons per square mile; Chicago, with a density of 13,000 per square mile; and Washington, D.C., with a density of 9,300 per square mile.

    The City of Richmond has a population density of 3,300. So Richmond can support the GRTC bus system - sort of. More accurately, the GRTC bus system can efficiently serve Richmond’s population. Outside the capital city the utility of mass transit drops off the edge of a cliff. Chesterfield’s density is only 610 persons per square mile - and even that comparatively low density seems sardine-like compared with the Commonwealth’s average density of 179 persons per square mile, which is far higher than the U.S. average of 80.

    Why does density matter? Because it enables large numbers of people to live or work within walking or bicycling distance of a transit station. Low density rates force transit systems into an unhappy tradeoff: Either they maintain numerous stations along their routes, which slows travel speeds considerably, or - for the sake of greater speed - they maintain just a few stations separated by large distances. The latter option not only makes use of the system inconvenient to most potential passengers, it also requires them to drive to the stations - which largely defeats the point.

    * * * * *

    Advocates of rail don’t envision a subway system running from Danville to D.C., of course. They favor something more like an expanded version of the Virginia Railway Express (VRE), which runs from Fredericksburg to the District. But the federally subsidized VRE charges $229 per month to transport someone from Fredericksburg to Crystal City in Alexandria - and the trip takes an hour and a half. Only a tiny fraction of commuters find the VRE practical and cost-effective.

    The VRE estimates that about 100 of its regular riders to D.C. are Richmonders who board at Fredericksburg. Other Richmonders travel to the District by vanpool, and still others who drive might take the VRE if it had a station here. Yet the cost of extending the VRE to Richmond likely would exceed by orders of magnitude the cost of schlepping commuters to Fredericksburg by express bus - a possibility recently raised by the GRTC.

    * * * * *

    But even if a few thousand people a day used express train service between Richmond and D.C., that would do next to nothing to alleviate the state’s transportation problem, of which I-95 traffic constitutes only a tiny fraction.

    Traffic in Northern Virginia is congested because people are traveling from Fairfax to Arlington, from Arlington to Alexandria, from Alexandria to Springfield. In Richmond people want to get from Short Pump to downtown, or from downtown to Courthouse Road, or from Courthouse Road to the Showplace in Mechanicsville. Mass transit for metro D.C. doesn’t work in less-dense Northern Virginia. It certainly wouldn’t work here in Richmond, where the diffuse population would make the system hugely inconvenient to use - or astronomically expensive.

    Why hasn’t Virginia embraced mass transit? Not because citizens harbor an irrational animosity against it. They just are insufficiently dense.

    Comments (0)


    Rough Day at TQ
    Bart Hinkle
    June 25, 2008 2:45 PM

    Over at Tertium Quids, Norm Leahy takes the Editorial Department to task for being insufficiently conservative. That’s fine; a lot of folks take us to task for being insufficiently liberal, too.

    What’s not so fine is misrepresenting the newspaper’s position, which Leahy does in abundance.

    (1) He’s already had to climb down a bit regarding his claim that the paper supports higher taxes. As my colleague Bob Rayner notes, we’ve supported cutting taxes elsewhere to make a hike in the gasoline tax revenue-neutral.

    Leahy cites one passage in one editorial about revenue neutrality and labels it “conditional advocacy.” He must have missed this passage in an earlier one:

    Lawmakers should offset the gasoline tax hike by cutting taxes elsewhere—perhaps by completing the long-delayed full implementation of the car-tax cut. (The car tax is not a road user fee; it is a levy on property.) This will require economies in other state programs. Deal with it. Set priorities. If the transportation crisis is as dire as the governor et al. claim, then other services that reaped the proceeds from Mark Warner’s massive tax hike four years ago should now move to the back seat.

    That isn’t terribly conditional, is it? No.

    (2) But, Leahy says, the T-D also has supported allowing local-option taxes in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. True. But there is a significant difference between supporting the option in those regions to raise taxes, as we have repeatedly done, and supporting the raising of taxes in those regions, as we have never done. We also supported the option of voting for John Kerry in 2004—but we never supported John Kerry.

    Leahy says we support telecommuting. True. I’m not sure how that qualifies as ideological deviationism, but it’s true nonetheless.

    (3) He says we support mass transit. True in part and false in part. I thought we had been pretty clear when we wrote:

    Public transit has its place. That place is in densely populated urban centers such as Northern Virginia and the Richmond region. From a cost-benefit perspective, bus service, commuter rail, and similar programs make little sense in most of the Old Dominion. Virginia (population density: 191 people per square mile) is not New Jersey (1,175) or even Massachusetts (816). Building a huge transit network where no demand exists won’t make people ride; it will merely create a white elephant.

    (4) Leahy says we are against sprawl. To be precise, we have opposed govevernment “policies that subsidize sprawl.” We have said “new development [should] pay for itself.” Again, I’m not sure how that qualifies as a departure from limited-government principles, but perhaps Leahy is reading from a different conservative catechism.

    (5) Then Leahy says “the paper is for . . . limiting choice and property rights.” To quote an infamous Washington Post correction about evangelicals, there is no factual basis for that statement.

    We have been almost strident defenders of property rights. See, e.g., a February 19, 2006, editorial, “Kelo Redux”: “Last year’s Supreme Court decision in Kelo v. New London was to property rights largely as Plessy v. Ferguson was to racial equality...”

    (6) Finally, he says the paper supports “massive wealth transfers to prop-up economically inefficient transit.” Again, there is no basis in fact for that statement.

    If Leahy doesn’t like the newspaper’s positions on the issues, that’s fine. Lots don’t. But it would be nice if he’d get them right before he decides he doesn’t like them.

    Comments (5)


    It Ain’t Easy. . .
    Bart Hinkle
    June 25, 2008 2:27 PM

    . . . being green:

    The host committee for the Democratic National Convention wanted 15,000 fanny packs for volunteers. But they had to be made of organic cotton. By unionized labor. In the USA.

    Official merchandiser Bob DeMasse scoured the country. His weary conclusion: “That just doesn’t exist.”

    Ditto for the baseball caps. “We have a union cap or an organic cap,” Mr. DeMasse says. “But we don’t have a union-organic offering.”

    Comments (8)


    The Times’ Glorious Spin Machine
    Bart Hinkle
    June 25, 2008 9:57 AM

    According to this NYT article about politicized hiring at the Justice Department (politicized hiring? in Washington? Who woulda imagined!). . .

    Another applicant, a student at the top of his class at Harvard who was fluent in Arabic, was relegated to the “questionable” pile because he was a member of the Council on American-Islamic Relations, a group that advocates civil liberties.

    Ya gotta love ‘em.

    Calling CAIR a civil-liberties group is something like calling the White People’s Party “a group that advocates protection of endangered species” (the WPP argues white people should receive protection under the Endangered Species Act). Technically true, perhaps—but less than half the truth, and the least important part of the whole truth.

    A little background on CAIR here.

    Comments (9)


    It Was Bound to Happen
    Bart Hinkle
    June 25, 2008 9:15 AM

    Premature Judgments
    Bart Hinkle
    June 24, 2008 11:23 AM

    One of the many reasons health care in America is so expensive is that it is so good and delivers so much. Consider premature babies:

    Nearly 13% of all babies in the U.S. are preemies, a 20% increase since 1990. A 2006 report by the National Academy of Sciences found that the 550,000 preemies born each year in the U.S. run up about $26 billion in annual costs, mostly related to care in NICUs. That represents about half of all the money hospitals spend on newborns. But the number, large as it is, may understate the bill. . . .

    For hospitals struggling with cost overruns in other areas, NICUs can be havens of healthy revenue growth and profits. Children’s National sets the goal of 4% profit margins overall, but NICU profits can be double that. Last November the hospital unveiled a $75 million tower that features various specialty units to treat heart and brain problems of preemies. Its expansion plans include a second NICU that will open in 2009. It will have 54 beds, boosting Children’s total preemie capacity by 25%. All of the rooms will be private and will be equipped with Internet systems that allow neurologists to monitor brain function from their homes.

    Comments (14)


    No Transportation Fix Here, Please!
    Bart Hinkle
    June 24, 2008 9:08 AM

    People in Northern Virginia want more transportation projects to ease traffic congestion—as long as they’re done slowly and don’t change anything..

    Comments (3)


    How to Talk to People
    Bart Hinkle
    June 24, 2008 8:28 AM

    . . . instead of getting stuck in phone-tree purgatory: Get Human.

    Comments (0)


    It’s All About Choice
    Bart Hinkle
    June 24, 2008 7:24 AM

    image

    Patients aren’t the only ones who have the right to choose. So do doctors and pharmacists. Today’s column explains.

    Comments (21)


    Money Can’t Buy Happiness
    Bart Hinkle
    June 23, 2008 11:16 AM

    Proof here:

    The irony is that health and the quality of personal relationships are among the most potent predictors of whether people report they are happy—and they are often the two things people sacrifice in their pursuit of greater wealth.

    Comments (7)


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