The Wall Street Journal’s James Taranto notes some interesting new poll numbers showing many Democrats say they will cross party lines and vote for John McCain if their candidate doesn’t win the Democratic nomination.

Even more interestingly, a higher percentage of Clinton supporters (28 percent) than Obama supporters (19 percent) vow to do so.

Taranto has some fun with liberal commentators constructing elaborate theories to explain that discrepancy. His own explanation, which he says “has the added advantage of being obvious”: Democrats are offended by the rantings of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

But there’s another explanation that’s even more obvious than that: white flight.

As Yale’s Ebonya Washington found out in a study a couple of years ago, Democrats are considerably more likely to bolt their party to avoid voting for a black candidate than Republicans are. As Washington Post columnist Richard Morin summarized her findings in 2006, “White Republicans nationally are 25 percentage points more likely on average to vote for the Democratic senatorial candidate when the GOP hopeful is black. . . . White Democrats are 38 percentage points less likely to vote Democratic if their candidate is black.”

Democrats who harbor racial animus obviously have less reason to bolt the party if Clinton wins the nomination. That explanation would seem best suited to pass the Occam’s Razor test. Don’t sit on a hot stove waiting for the Democratic cheering section to consider that possibility, though.

Update: Taranto says that conclusion “is certainly tempting,“ but “Morin’s column, published in April 2006, illustrates the problem with drawing conclusions based on Washington’s study.“ And he’s got real-world cases to prove it!

To Petek’s comment: I just think this Ebonya study is being quoted not as a scientfic study but as a political exercise. 

And to Ed’s comment: The conclusions from this study are wildly overblown and distorted because an election is underway. Just that simple.

I’d just like to add that no matter what someone says today, what they do behind the curtain on the election day is what counts.  It’s all hot air until you push that final button and get yer sticker!

If you mean, will I or could I vote for Obama, the answer is yes. Or the dreaded feminazi Hillary. McCain has some plus points to him too. All 3 nauseate me but less so than the alternatives.

The Rev. Wright thing is divisive but not decisive.

I’m not sure any of this is relevant.

I’m just one person. Has nothing to do with what the electorate as a whole is thinking.

I just think this Ebonya study is being quoted not as a scientfic study but as a political exercise. The only reason for this study to be on either a leftwing or rightwing blog is for the clueless yahoos like you and me to blather over. No other reason.

If there was any real significance to it it would be all over the news and the subject of much scientific debate. It’s a curious finding but no more than that. The size of the numbers is an eye opener, that much for sure.

Expect much more of that in the immediate future. This is an election year. It’s all about politics, Peter.

“it will not be ignored. You see me talking it right now.“

but are you “walking the talk”

No Peter,

it will not be ignored. You see me talking it right now.

For starters, the comment of “when the GOP hopeful is black” cracked me up. What century will that occur in ? Not this one, most likely. Not the previous one. Oh, maybe in a few centuries down the road.

The conclusions from this study are wildly overblown and distorted because an election is underway. Just that simple.

What does the Ebonya study really mean ? Well maybe just that Republicans are bigger hypocrites, who will say they will vote black but then don’t. The Democrats don’t give a damn and call it like it is.

It might also mean the Democrats are just more flighty in general, which passes my Occam’s Razor test. Republicans are strong on core values even to the bitter and unhealthy end. Democrats can be swayed by old fads and new fads, and the passing wind.

The notion that Democrats are bolting partylines is a very political thing to say too. You don’t hear Democrats saying that. Why ? Because in politics you always state things in the positive unless talking about your opponents. We can assume that Bart’s opponent is not McCain.

Another thing this study does not prove is racial animus. We can assume it exists at such numbers, but this does not prove it. Why do an overwhelming number of blacks support Obama even when previously aligned with Hillary ? Is it really animus or is it just a simpler explanation ?  Namely, that you vote for your own tribe. Chauvanism. Provincialism. You award the prize to your own man, not to the stranger, all other things being equal.

And speaking of strange, “trendy chocolate-neoplolitan nubile socialist” was even more lurid than usual. Kudos to Roger for his bizarre ideation. (must be Friday)

It maybe too early to tell whether the party crossover will occur. There is also a threat by conservative Republicans to bolt the party-Republican.
  As to race being a factor, I like the old Malcolm X analogy. One party is the party of wolves, the other a party of foxes. Both are carnivores who will eat you.

Well, with those wild statements by the Reverend Kookoo Bird, I imagine that number of Democratic line-crossers will increase even more this time. If Obama is nominated that is.

Or it could be that the Hillary camp is upset that the reliably biased media has forsaken the lying meglomaniacal chick for a trendy chocolate-neoplolitan nubile socialist?

Who cares. I just get a kick out of watching these pigs kick their filthy race-gender baiting crap on each other.

One day the public will shake off the carefully ingrained gullibility injected by the unionized leftists of the educrat mafia and realize just what filthy, devisive garbage the democrat party offers.

Only then will a serious “dialouge” begin.

Right after Karma takes it’s cut, of course.

But this is contrary to what we’ve been taught for years—that the Republicans are racists. Looks to me from this information that once again the Democrats are going against the conventional wisdom
Wonder how much this will get reported and analyzed in the MSM and the leftwing blogs. sorry forget that last question as I know it will be totally ignored

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